Despite a decrease in new daily COVID-19 cases, experts caution that it’s premature to relax. They believe that the threat of a second wave still lingers and emphasize the importance of the next four weeks. The recent surge, with 15,000 new cases reported in the last 24 hours, indicates a potential onset of a second wave of infections in India.
A study titled “Exploratory Analysis of Demographic Factors and the Temporal Evolution of COVID-19 in India,” published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Global Health, highlights the vulnerability of highly urbanized states such as Maharashtra, Gujarat, and Tamil Nadu. Data from India further reveals that heavily urbanized cities like Mumbai and Delhi are particularly affected, posing challenges to health infrastructure sustainability in these areas. Public health experts caution that the evolving pandemic may lead to a second wave of infections due to various factors.
What is the second wave?
A second wave refers to a surge in COVID-19 cases following a decline. China has already experienced this, with recent reports of cluster infections despite a period of no new cases. Similar trends may arise in other countries, including India, as lockdown measures ease and economic activities resume. With people returning to work, shopping centers and entertainment venues reopening, and adherence to COVID-19 protocols waning, the risk of a second wave increases.
According to Lalit Kant, a scientist and former head of epidemiology and communicable diseases at the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), the circulation of different virus variants, a large number of lab-confirmed cases, and uncertainties about post-exposure immunity contribute to the potential emergence of new variants and the susceptibility of the uninfected population.
Can the second wave in India be minimized? How?
